Two-Wheeler Electrification in India: Challenges & Opportunities

ELECTRICITY GENERATION

India burns 966 million tons of coal each year, making it the second largest coal consumer in the world. As is evidently clear, coal is a dirty fuel, which generates severe pollution – a big challenge India faces. Coal burning generates a huge amount of greenhouse gases and is also unsustainable as reserves are finite. Naturally, having an entire industry sector switch to electric will have massive benefits in terms of lowering pollution, emitting far lesser greenhouse gases as well as making transport greener, cleaner and also cheaper.

A recent report from the International Renewable Energy Agency found that, with solar and wind farms becoming ever so cheap, up to 62% of new renewable energy projects could undercut 800 gigawatts worth of coal burning. In India, renewable energy would be cheaper than between 87% - 91% new coal plants. Furthermore, in less than a decade, solar costs have fallen by 85% and this trend is likely to continue aggressively as more players enter the renewable energy space and technology gets cheaper.

This could very well translate into a realistic situation in the near future where charging stations for EVs and batteries are powered by solar and wind solutions, in a tropical country where the sun shines for almost the whole year. This means that at the current cost of solar, which is around Rs. 3 per unit, it could fall precipitously, undercutting every other form of fuel by a considerable margin. The added benefit of this being a completely clean, renewable, environmentally friendly, carbon footprint reducing enterprise is almost like divine intervention, a near perfect solution.

REALISING ENERGY EUTOPIA

To realise this energy utopia however, India faces some serious challenges for which it will have to find meaningful and sustainable solutions.

The electrical grid throughout major cities in India needs considerable overhaul. One that promotes long lasting, robust infrastructure that minimizes maintenance costs, transmission losses and increases efficiency. This will be the backbone that the EV market leans on. Even though the analysis is that at full adoption – if every two-wheeler in India was an electric vehicle – the grid load would just be at 4 – 5%, if the grid continues in its current form, this would not be achievable. With such a large number of EVs on the road, this future grid would have to account for variables and scenarios like lower usage in residential apartment buildings and complexes in the day, but high load in corporate parks and office spaces. The grid would also have to account for the reverse to occur at night. Infrastructure would need to be built, standardized and properly enforced to maintain these variables and any load & usage related spikes.

Battery swapping could be seen as a solution to the load of the grid to some degree. Innovations, protocols and standardisations in battery manufacturing, types and kinds of batteries would encourage holistic usage of the grid. Solutions such as incentivizing people to charge during non-peak load hours, as well as charging stations offering discounts during non-peak hours can be explored with data driven

analysis.

BUILDING CHARGING NETWORK

Hand in glove with updating the grid would be, the construction of an intricate and reliable charging network. Though several companies have already started building their charging networks, the size of the market as of now is extremely small. Of all 2 and 4 wheelers sold in India annually, EVs make up only a fraction. Annual sales of all electric vehicles are only at one lakh units so far in 2022. This makes planning and prioritizing large-scale deployments very difficult. It is something akin to shooting in the dark, creating wide-ranging ramifications ranging from urban infrastructure, city layouts, manufacturing trends & transitions, learning curves and behavioral shifts.

The government needs to provide that shot in the arm which will enable detailed research over large scale adoption issues. Specific aspects like EV charging demand and Time of Day (ToD) correlations, requirement similarities and differences between privately owned vehicles & public fleet vehicles, distribution capacity and tariff rates would have to be studied.

Worst case scenarios like what would happen to the grid if all EVs were connected at the same time need to be plotted out and have contingencies created. All of these aspects would play a major role in creating efficiency and synergy between EVs and the grid that powers them, while avoiding unforeseen consequences.

Although these challenges exist, India seems poised for an EV revolution. With intent and action from the center – measured by subsidies and incentives to manufacturers and start-ups, coupled with lucrative profits to be made as the EV sector booms, the future does seem hopeful.

(Mayank Jain is Director, Crayon Motors. The views expressed in the above article are solely the author's and do not reflect the opinions and beliefs of Motown India or its affiliates)

Sources for stats:

https://www.brookings.edu/research/electrifying-mobility-in-india/

https://www.businesstoday.in/auto/story/registered-ev-sales-cross-1-lakh-mark-in-2022-electric-2w-sales-grow-433-325131-2022-03-08

https://univdatos.com/report/india-two-wheeler-market/

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/23/most-new-wind-solar-projects-cheaper-than-coal-report